I'll be honest, I'd be more worried about the polls if someone -- either Kos or Atrios, I believe -- hadn't kindly explained "likely" voters to me. And the above CNN.com article at least takes the time to explain it to people. Basically, they take a poll, find out who's registered to vote, what they're registered as, and then take percentages of that as people who are likely to vote.
Straight polling figures: 49 Bush - 47 Kerry, + or - 3. In essence, a dead heat.
Why the difference? It turns out most "likely voter" models favor Republicans. Of course, what hasn't been taken into account is things like the 71% of Democrats saying that this is the vote of their generation, vs. 21% of Republicans. And the fact that most new voter registrations are Democrats.
But then again, with electronic voting, you can do whatever you want without anyone seeing you.Posted by Ted Stevko at October 26, 2004 01:54 AM | TrackBack